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La Niña Weakens; El Niño Possible by June

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reports that the rain-bearing La Niña is weakening, with sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific now within the neutral range of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As of February 1, the Niño3.4 index stood at -0.75°C, indicating a potential shift towards drought-inducing El Niño conditions by June, although forecasts remain uncertain. La Niña typically brings rain to Asia and drought to the Americas, but this instance has been weak, resulting in limited rainfall in India and prolonged dry spells in the US and South America. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +10.3, above the La Niña threshold, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is at +0.59°C, above the positive threshold but expected to remain neutral until late autumn 2026. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is also neutral, with no significant changes anticipated in the short term. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 7 pm

"Indian Minister: FTAs Include Safeguards for Agriculture Sector"

Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan assured the Lok Sabha that the Indian government prioritizes the protection of the agricultural sector during negotiations for Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Responding to concerns from farmers' organizations regarding potential adverse impacts of proposed FTAs, including with the US, Chouhan emphasized that safeguards are in place to shield sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy from unfair competition. He highlighted the government's proactive engagement with farmers, noting that discussions have addressed various issues, including the Electricity Amendment Bill and rural employment under the Viksit Bharat - Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Grameen). Chouhan also reported an average outstanding farm debt of ₹74,121 per agricultural household, while over ₹4.09 lakh crore has been disbursed through the PM-KISAN scheme. Additionally, the agriculture sector's gross value added (GVA) grew by 10.4% in 2024-25, reflecting ongoing assessments of key growth factors. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 8 pm

Gold, silver rebound as investors seek bargains

Gold and silver rebounded on Tuesday, recovering losses from previous sessions as investors engaged in bargain hunting. Silver surged over 11%, surpassing $100 per ounce in China, while gold rose by 5.5%. The platinum group of metals also saw a recovery, increasing by 6%. Analysts noted that the recent sharp corrections—25% for gold and 45% for silver—prompted strong physical buying, with Renisha Chainani from Augmont highlighting that the declines were more technical than fundamental. In India, gold futures gained 6%, and silver contracts rose by 15%, as investors capitalized on the price drop. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported silver at a premium due to high demand in various industries. Despite the volatility, experts predict gold could reach $5,000, while silver may consolidate between $72 and $87. The precious metals market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 8 pm

Next GST Council to address registration, audits, and refunds

The GST Council is set to streamline processes related to registration, refunds, and audits in its upcoming meeting, following a recommendation for a comprehensive overhaul of the rate structure during its last session on September 3. A senior Finance Ministry official indicated that the agenda for the next meeting, likely scheduled for late March or early April after the Budget is passed, is being prepared based on extensive discussions. Tax experts have urged the Council to address the challenges posed by the current distinction between goods and services, which hampers liquidity for businesses. Additionally, new tax proposals in the Finance Bill aim to empower compliant taxpayers, allowing for revised returns to be filed within twelve months and expanding immunity provisions for under-reporting cases. The official emphasized that successful implementation of these changes will require significant effort from officials. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 8 pm

Experts Seek Clarity on Budget's CAR-T Therapy Waiver Confusion

In a move to enhance access to CAR-T therapies in India, the government has waived basic customs duty on 17 cancer drugs, including the indigenously developed Talycabtagene autoleucel. This therapy, a collaboration between IIT-B and Tata Memorial Hospital, is commercialized by ImmunoAct, an IIT-B incubated company. While the waiver has sparked confusion among industry insiders regarding its implications—whether it pertains to patented components or facilitates the import of CAR-T therapies—health ministry sources clarified that the goal is to meet patient needs. Currently, only two local companies, ImmunoAct and Immuneel Therapeutics, produce CAR-T therapies, which are significantly cheaper than their international counterparts, priced at approximately Rs 35-40 lakh per infusion. Major global players like Novartis and Gilead do not yet sell their CAR-T products in India, highlighting the potential for growth in this sector. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 8 pm

India to keep purchasing crude from non-sanctioned sources, Russia included

Despite US President Donald Trump's claims that India will cease importing Russian crude oil, government sources indicate that New Delhi plans to continue sourcing from "non-sanctioned entities," including Russia. Analysts and trade sources suggest a complete halt in supplies is "extremely unlikely" in the next few months, as no official order has been issued to stop these imports. Current logistics mean that vessels carrying Russian oil will continue to arrive at Indian ports until early 2026. While refiners could technically operate without Russian oil, a rapid disengagement would pose commercial and political challenges. Moody's warns that a total cessation of Russian imports could disrupt India's economic growth, potentially raising inflation. However, India is diversifying its oil sources, with US crude imports rising significantly. This strategy aims to mitigate risks while maintaining stable refined product yields, as refiners adapt to changing market dynamics. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 8 pm

70% of Indian recruiters face talent quality issues

Indian recruiters are facing significant challenges in matching candidates to job openings, primarily due to a surge in high-volume, low-quality applications, according to recent LinkedIn data. Approximately 75% of recruiters report that hiring has become more difficult, with 53% citing an increase in AI-generated applications and 47% noting a shortage of in-demand skills. Despite hiring activity being 40% above pre-pandemic levels, nearly half of recruiters struggle to differentiate genuine applications from misleading ones, leading to a competitive job market. In response, 71% of recruiters are leveraging AI tools to identify overlooked skills, with 80% reporting improved insights into candidates. LinkedIn's APAC VP, Ruchee Anand, emphasized a shift towards evaluating demonstrated skills over traditional credentials, highlighting AI's role in streamlining the hiring process. Early adopters of LinkedIn's AI tools have reported significant time savings and improved candidate engagement, indicating a transformative impact on recruitment practices. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 7 pm

Seaplane VGF scheme may offer hybrid subsidies, guarantees

India's proposed Seaplane Viability Gap Funding (VGF) scheme aims to bolster the nascent commercial seaplane sector by implementing structural measures to enhance early-stage viability, according to industry sources. The framework is set to focus on subsidy design, aircraft access, and regulatory streamlining, particularly for small aircraft with seating capacities of 9 to 19. The scheme is expected to adopt a hybrid subsidy model for the first 24 months, combining fixed annuity payments with seat-based funding to ensure predictable cash flows for operators. Recognizing the high capital costs and risks associated with seaplane operations, the proposal may include limited sovereign guarantees for aircraft lessors. However, fragmented regulations remain a significant hurdle, with multiple approvals and regulatory uncertainties potentially stalling progress. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently announced initiatives in the Union Budget aimed at enhancing regional connectivity and promoting seaplane manufacturing to support tourism and last-mile connectivity. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 7 pm

US Trade Deal Boosts Pricing for Indian Leather Exporters

The Indian leather industry has welcomed a significant reduction in US tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, alleviating months of uncertainty and financial strain. Sanjay Lulla, Managing Director of SM Lulla Industries, expressed relief, stating that buyers will now pay full prices, allowing exporters to regain competitiveness. Since August, many exporters had resorted to offering steep discounts of 15 to 40 percent to retain US clients, which account for 22 percent of India's $3 billion leather exports. A Ateequr Rahman, Managing Director of Habeeb Tanning Company, noted that the new 18 percent duty is the lowest compared to competitors like China and Vietnam, positioning India favorably in the market. Israr Ahmed of the Farida Group anticipates a surge in orders as discounts diminish, while M Abdul Wahab of KH Exports highlighted the government's support in navigating the crisis and exploring non-US markets. The industry is optimistic about a return to growth. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 7 pm

New baggage rules simplify jewellery and equipment re-import, says CBIC

In a recent interview, Vivek Chaturvedi, Chairman of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs, announced significant changes to the Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) scheme aimed at facilitating trade. The duty deferral period for AEO clients has been extended from 15 days to once a month, enhancing customs clearance efficiency. A new class of trusted entities will also be eligible for similar benefits, promoting a broader ecosystem of reliable clients. Additionally, a pilot Electronic Cargo Tracking System (ECTS) will be launched at Nhava Sheva to streamline export processes. In the fisheries sector, duty-free import limits for aquaculture inputs have increased, and jurisdiction for fishing activities has been expanded beyond India's territorial waters. Furthermore, the baggage rules have been revised to eliminate value caps on gold jewellery for returning residents, while a new provision allows temporary imports of costly equipment without duty, simplifying customs procedures for travelers. sources

Published:
Feb 03 2026, 7 pm

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