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RBI Bulletin: Positive Near-Term Economic Outlook

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest monthly bulletin indicates a positive near-term economic outlook, bolstered by consumption, investment, and productivity reforms. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has revised growth projections for the first two quarters of FY27, increasing estimates to 6.9% and 7.0%, respectively. Inflation is expected to remain manageable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasted at 2.1% for FY26 and 4% for Q1 FY27. Recent trade agreements, including the India-EU free trade negotiations and an interim deal with the US, are anticipated to enhance market access and boost export competitiveness, leading to a resurgence in foreign portfolio investment, which saw inflows of $2.3 billion in February. Headline inflation stood at 2.8% year-on-year in January, with core inflation remaining subdued at 1.9%, suggesting limited underlying price pressures. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 7 pm

CCPA targets six e-commerce sites for selling jamming devices

The Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) has issued notices to six e-commerce platforms, including Everse and IndiaMart, for allegedly selling restricted wireless devices such as anti-drone systems and jammers without proper licensing information. This action is seen as a violation of the Consumer Protection Act, 2019, and relevant telecom laws, as these products were marketed without disclosing that civilian possession requires statutory authorization. The CCPA has demanded detailed documentation from these platforms, including procurement sources and regulatory approvals, while emphasizing that the sale of such equipment is strictly controlled under the Indian Telegraph Act and the Wireless Telegraphy Act. The authority highlighted that failing to provide essential information constitutes misleading advertising and unfair trade practices, and warned that non-compliance could lead to legal repercussions. The CCPA remains dedicated to protecting consumer interests and ensuring that restricted products are not unlawfully sold online. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 8 pm

Investors Reenter Gold ETFs After Initial Profit-Taking

Inflows into physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resumed in the second week of February, following a profit-taking trend in the previous week, although overall inflows remained lower than outflows. The World Gold Council reported a decrease in assets under management (AUM) from $668.7 billion to $655 billion by February 6, before rising to $664.2 billion by February 13. Investors withdrew $3.87 billion in the first week but returned $2.34 billion in the second week. Gold prices peaked at $5,608 in late January but have since settled at $5,030.77 an ounce amid geopolitical tensions and a hawkish outlook from potential US Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh. Notably, the UK saw significant ETF encashments, while North America and Europe experienced similar trends of outflows and subsequent inflows. Japanese investors also returned to the market, contributing to a cautious recovery in gold ETF investments. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 8 pm

"Farmers Embrace AI Forecasts as Accuracy Increases in India"

Farmers are increasingly relying on government weather forecasts enhanced by Artificial Intelligence (AI), according to Union Agriculture Secretary Devesh Chaturvedi. Speaking at the India AI Impact Summit, Chaturvedi highlighted the use of a century's worth of data from the India Meteorological Department to create accurate monsoon predictions, which have influenced farmers' decisions on sowing and irrigation. The government plans to expand these forecasts to include market prices and conditions, aiming to boost productivity and reduce costs. However, attempts to predict prices of essential commodities like onions and tomatoes using AI faced challenges due to discrepancies in historical data. Chaturvedi also introduced the 'Bharat-VISTAAR' scheme, which consolidates various agricultural advisories and will soon offer AI-driven guidance through a helpline. Initially available in Hindi and English, the service aims to support farmers in multiple regional languages within six months. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 8 pm

Air Cargo Industry Pushes for Double-Dip Facility Restoration

The air cargo industry in India is advocating for the reinstatement of the double-dip facility, which allows foreign freighter aircraft to operate between two Indian airports on a single international journey without domestic cargo transport. Industry insiders argue that this measure is crucial for unlocking growth in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, which are expected to drive India's next economic phase. The suspension of this facility during the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a significant loss of international freighter capacity, with stakeholders highlighting that India currently operates only 18 freighters, lagging behind global counterparts. The Air Cargo Forum India and other associations have communicated to the Ministry of Civil Aviation that restoring this facility could enhance export access for farmers, potentially increasing their incomes by 1.5 to 3 times. This reform is seen as vital for boosting logistics jobs and integrating regional hubs into international supply chains, thereby fostering balanced economic growth across the country. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 8 pm

India-US trade deal could launch in April, says Goyal

Union Minister Piyush Goyal announced on Friday that he anticipates the signing of an interim trade deal between India and the US in March, with implementation expected by April. Indian exporters are awaiting a reduction in reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18%, a move US officials indicated would occur before the deal's finalization. Goyal confirmed that this tariff reduction is likely to happen in February. The US has already rolled back some punitive tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases. India's chief negotiator, Darpan Jain, is set to meet with US officials on February 23 to finalize the agreement's legal text. Goyal criticized opposition leader Rahul Gandhi for questioning India's commitment to a $100 billion annual trade target without a similar pledge from the US. The interim deal is expected to benefit Indian exporters, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, while also addressing concerns from some farmer groups regarding agricultural commitments. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 7 pm

India and US sign pact for chips, AI, minerals security

India has officially joined the Pax Silica initiative, a strategic partnership aimed at securing resilient supply chains for semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals, during the India AI Impact Summit in New Delhi. The declaration was signed by Information Technology Secretary S. Krishnan and US Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg, with Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw and US Ambassador Sergio Gor in attendance. Launched in December, Pax Silica includes several nations, including Australia, Japan, and the UK, and seeks to reduce reliance on a single country, implicitly targeting China. Helberg emphasized the need to address the vulnerabilities of over-concentrated supply chains and the risks of economic coercion. Vaishnaw highlighted India's growing capabilities in chip design, while industry leaders, including Google CEO Sundar Pichai, expressed optimism about the future of US-India tech collaboration. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 7 pm

Central banks to diverge as easing cycle nears end, RBI Governor says

Headline inflation in India is projected to be 2.1% for the fiscal year 2025-26, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasting a slight increase to 4% and 4.2% in the first two quarters of 2026-27, respectively. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted that inflation outcomes may vary globally, influenced by fiscal stimulus and geopolitical uncertainties, while domestic economic activity remains robust, with real GDP growth expected to rise to 7.4% in 2025-26. The RBI's monetary policy committee voted to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%, emphasizing a neutral stance amid low inflation rates. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta noted limited external inflation risks, while external member Ram Singh advocated for a shift to an accommodative stance, arguing that stable inflation and economic fundamentals warrant a proactive approach. The RBI's decisions reflect a cautious optimism about the economic outlook as it navigates ongoing market volatility. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 7 pm

UPL restructures to form dedicated crop protection division

UPL, a leading crop protection company, has unveiled a restructuring plan aimed at consolidating its India and international crop protection businesses into a dedicated platform, UPL Global, which will be publicly listed. This initiative will result in two listed entities: the existing UPL, which focuses on diversified agriculture and specialty chemicals, and the new UPL Global, specifically for crop protection. Shareholders will receive one share of UPL Global for each UPL share they hold. The restructuring involves merging UPL Sustainable Agri Solutions into UPL, followed by the demerger of the India crop protection business into UPL Global, and finally merging UPL Corp with UPL Global. Expected to complete within 12-15 months, the plan aims to enhance shareholder value, streamline operations, and attract a broader investor base. UPL's leadership believes this move will position both entities for sustainable growth and innovation in a rapidly evolving market. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 6 pm

Embraer teams up with Hindalco for aluminum supply

Embraer, the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Hindalco to explore sourcing aerospace-grade aluminium from India, enhancing its supply chain strategy. This agreement builds on an existing partnership with Hindalco's US subsidiary, Novelis, and aims to strengthen local supplier relationships, according to Roberto Chaves, Embraer's Executive Vice President of Global Procurement and Supply Chain. The initiative is part of Embraer's broader commitment to developing the Indian aerospace ecosystem, which includes recent collaborations with Adani and Mahindra to manufacture commercial and military aircraft in India. Currently, Embraer operates a fleet of 47 aircraft in India across various sectors, including commercial aviation, executive aviation, and defence, underscoring the country's strategic importance to the company. Last year, Embraer and Novelis established a multi-year partnership for the supply of aluminium components for its aircraft programmes. sources

Published:
Feb 20 2026, 6 pm

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